Lucky 13

Just before Christmas, I went to a party attended by many in our related professions - Lots of Architects, Engineers and Contractors. Fortunately, there were enough regular folk to make the party interesting. I even learned about something that has little relevance to much of anything important.  I now can say that I have tried a shot luge. But that's probably the subject of a different kind of post.

In any event, the inevitable happened - some of us talked about what we were expecting in the way of business for 2013. For me, the surprise was that there was little agreement.  One operations manager from an international construction firm talked about how he sees few prospects for Connecticut, while Massachusetts was busy. The implication was that the work bust/boom cycles may have started in some locations.

Another was pessimistic about subcontractor survival. After too long taking work just to keep the doors open (and losing money in the process), some are so deep in the hole that climbing out may not be possible given the price/fee competition that continues unabated.

An Architect bemoaned the pursuit of design perfection that was spending the low fees that they were getting for their commissions.

I, on the other hand, with not much more than hope and intuition to go on, was trying to argue for optimism. Here's some of my logic: We have been down so long, that there is now a pent up demand for improvement. Owner's are starting to come to grips with the growing backlog of deferred maintenance. Commercial and institutional businesses that have held off on improvements, either because they didn't have the money or couldn't convince lenders they are good for the debts, are trying to find ways to upgrade. They're concerned about their lost ability to compete in whatever realm they're part of.  And, businesses and consultants know that they have left things go for so long, they will need help and advice on how to recover.

Is this logical or deluded? Tell me a year from now!